Machine learning and predictive models: 2 years of Sars-CoV-2 pandemic in a single-center retrospective analysis

Background Since January 2020, coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) has rapidly spread all over the world. An early assessment of illness severity is crucial for the stratification of patients in order to address them to the right intensity path of care. We performed an analysis on a large cohort of COVID-19 patients (n=581) hospitalized between March 2020 and May 2021 in our intensive care unit (ICU) at Policlinico Riuniti di Foggia hospital. Through an integration of the scores, demographic data, clinical history, laboratory findings, respiratory parameters, a correlation analysis, and the use of machine learning our study aimed to develop a model to predict the main outcome. Methods We deemed eligible for analysis all adult patients (age >18 years old) admitted to our department. We excluded all the patients with an ICU length of stay inferior to 24 h and the ones that declined to participate in our data collection. We collected demographic data, medical history, D-dimers, NEWS2, and MEWS scores on ICU admission and on ED admission, PaO2/FiO2 ratio on ICU admission, and the respiratory support modalities before the orotracheal intubation and the intubation timing (early vs late with a 48-h hospital length of stay cutoff). We further collected the ICU and hospital lengths of stay expressed in days of hospitalization, hospital location (high dependency unit, HDU, ED), and length of stay before and after ICU admission;the in-hospital mortality;and the in-ICU mortality. We performed univariate, bivariate, and multivariate statistical analyses. Results SARS-CoV-2 mortality was positively correlated to age, length of stay in HDU, MEWS, and NEWS2 on ICU admission, D-dimer value on ICU admission, early orotracheal intubation, and late orotracheal intubation. We found a negative correlation between the PaO2/FiO2 ratio on ICU admission and NIV. No significant correlations with sex, obesity, arterial hypertension, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, chronic kidney disease, cardiovascular disease, diabetes mellitus, dyslipidemia, and neither MEWS nor NEWS on ED admission were observed. Considering all the pre-ICU variables, none of the machine learning algorithms performed well in developing a prediction model accurate enough to predict the outcome although a secondary multivariate analysis focused on the ventilation modalities and the main outcome confirmed how the choice of the right ventilatory support with the right timing is crucial. Conclusion In our cohort of COVID patients, the choice of the right ventilatory support at the right time has been crucial, severity scores, and clinical judgment gave support in identifying patients at risk of developing a severe disease, comorbidities showed a lower weight than expected considering the main outcome, and machine learning method integration could be a fundamental statistical tool in the comprehensive evaluation of such complex diseases.

Effects of Positive End-Expiratory Pressure in "High Compliance" Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome.

OBJECTIVES: Clinical observation suggests that early acute respiratory distress syndrome induced by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 may be "atypical" due to a discrepancy between a relatively unaffected static respiratory system compliance and a significant hypoxemia. This would imply an "atypical" response to the positive end-expiratory pressure. DESIGN: Single-center, unblinded, crossover study. SETTING: ICU of Bari Policlinico Academic Hospital (Italy), dedicated to care patients with confirmed diagnosis of novel coronavirus disease 2019. PATIENTS: Eight patients with early severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 acute respiratory distress syndrome and static respiratory compliance higher than or equal to 50 mL/cm H2O. INTERVENTIONS: We compared a "lower" and a "higher" positive end-expiratory pressure approach, respectively, according to the intervention arms of the acute respiratory distress syndrome network and the positive end-expiratory pressure setting in adults with acute respiratory distress syndrome studies. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Patients were ventilated with the acute respiratory distress syndrome network and, subsequently, with the ExPress protocol. After 1 hour of ventilation, for each protocol, we recorded arterial blood gas, respiratory mechanics, alveolar recruitment, and hemodynamic variables. Comparisons were performed with analysis of variance for repeated measures or Friedman test as appropriate. Positive end-expiratory pressure was increased from 9 ± 3.5 to 17.7 ± 1.7 cm H2O (p < 0.01). Alveolar recruitment was 450 ± 111 mL. Static respiratory system compliance decreased from 58.3 ± 7.6 mL/cm H2O to 47.4 ± 14.5 mL/cm H2O (p = 0.018) and the "stress index" increased from 0.97 ± 0.03 to 1.22 ± 0.07 (p < 0.001). The PaO2/FIO2 ratio increased from 131 ± 22 to 207 ± 41 (p < 0.001), and the PaCO2 increased from 45.9 ± 12.7 to 49.8 ± 13.2 mm Hg (p < 0.001). The cardiac index went from 3.6 ± 0.4 to 2.9 ± 0.6 L/min/m (p = 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Our data suggest that the "higher" positive end-expiratory pressure approach in patients with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 acute respiratory distress syndrome and high compliance improves oxygenation and lung aeration but may result in alveolar hyperinflation and hemodynamic alterations.

A Lower Global Lung Ultrasound Score Is Associated with Higher Likelihood of Successful Extubation in Invasively Ventilated COVID-19 Patients.

Lung ultrasound (LUS) can be used to assess loss of aeration, which is associated with outcome in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) presenting to the emergency department. We hypothesized that LUS scores are associated with outcome in critically ill COVID-19 patients receiving invasive ventilation. This retrospective international multicenter study evaluated patients with COVID-19-related acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) with at least one LUS study within 5 days after invasive mechanical ventilation initiation. The global LUS score was calculated by summing the 12 regional scores (range 0-36). Pleural line abnormalities and subpleural consolidations were also scored. The outcomes were successful liberation from the ventilator and intensive care mortality within 28 days, analyzed with multistate, competing risk proportional hazard models. One hundred thirty-seven patients with COVID-19-related ARDS were included in our study. The global LUS score was associated with successful liberation from mechanical ventilation (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.91 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.87-0.96; P = 0.0007) independently of the ARDS severity, but not with 28 days mortality (HR: 1.03; 95% CI 0.97-1.08; P = 0.36). Subpleural consolidation and pleural line abnormalities did not add to the prognostic value of the global LUS score. Examinations within 24 hours of intubation showed no prognostic value. To conclude, a lower global LUS score 24 hours after invasive ventilation initiation is associated with increased probability of liberation from the mechanical ventilator COVID-19 ARDS patients, independently of the ARDS severity.

A Pilot Study on Electrical Impedance Tomography During CPAP Trial in Patients With Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Pneumonia: The Bright Side of Non-invasive Ventilation.

Background: Different severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pneumonia phenotypes were described that match with different lung compliance and level of oxygenation, thus requiring a personalized ventilator setting. The burden of so many patients and the lack of intensive care unit (ICU) beds often force physicians to choose non-invasive ventilation (NIV) as the first approach, even if no consent has still been reached to discriminate whether it is safer to choose straightforward intubation, paralysis, and protective ventilation. Under such conditions, electrical impedance tomography (EIT), a non-invasive bedside tool to monitor lung ventilation and perfusion defects, could be useful to assess the response of patients to NIV and choose rapidly the right ventilatory strategy. Objective: The rationale behind this study is that derecruitment is a more efficient measure of positive end expiratory pressure (PEEP)-dependency of patients than recruitment. We hypothesized that patients who derecruit significantly when PEEP is reduced are the ones that do not need early intubation while small end-expiratory lung volume (ΔEELV) variations after a single step of PEEP de-escalation could be predictive of NIV failure. Materials and Methods: Consecutive patients admitted to ICU with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia ventilated in NIV were enrolled. Exclusion criteria were former intubation or NIV lasting > 72 h. A trial of continuos positive airway pressure (CPAP) 12 was applied in every patient for at least 15 min, followed by the second period of CPAP 6, either in the supine or prone position. Besides standard monitoring, ventilation of patients was assessed by EIT, and end-expiratory lung impedance (ΔEELI) (%) was calculated as the difference in EELI between CPAP12 and CPAP6. Tidal volume (Vt), Ve, respiratory rate (RR), and FiO2 were recorded, and ABGs were measured. Data were analyzed offline using the dedicated software. The decision to intubate or continue NIV was in charge of treating physicians, independently from study results. Outcomes of patients in terms of intubation rate and ICU mortality were recorded. Results: We enrolled 10 male patients, with a mean age of 67 years. Six patients (60%) were successfully treated by NIV until ICU discharge (Group S), and four patients failed NIV and were intubated and switched to MV (Group F). All these patients died in ICU. During the supine CPAP decremental trial, all patients experienced an increase in RR and Ve. ΔEELI was < 40% in Group F and > 50% in Group S. In the prone trial, ΔEELI was > 50% in all patients, while RR decreased in Group S and remained unchanged in Group F. Conclusion: ΔEELI < 40% after a single PEEP de-escalation step in supine position seems to be a good predictor of poor recruitment and CPAP failure.

Use of low-molecular weight heparin, transfusion and mortality in COVID-19 patients not requiring ventilation.

It is still debated whether prophylactic doses of low-molecular- weight heparin (LMWH) are always effective in preventing Venous Thromboembolism (VTE) and mortality in COVID-19. Furthermore, there is paucity of data for those patients not requiring ventilation. We explored mortality and the safety/efficacy profile of LMWH in a cohort of Italian patients with COVID-19 who did not undergo ventilation. From the initial cohort of 422 patients, 264 were enrolled. Most (n = 156, 87.7%) received standard LMWH prophylaxis during hospitalization, with no significant difference between medical wards and Intensive Care Unit (ICU). Major or not major but clinically relevant hemorrhages were recorded in 13 (4.9%) patients: twelve in those taking prophylactic LMWH and one in a patient taking oral anticoagulants (p: n.s.). Thirty-nine patients (14.8%) with median age 75 years. were transfused. Hemoglobin (Hb) at admission was significantly lower in transfused patients and Hb at admission inversely correlated with the number of red blood cells units transfused (p < 0.001). In-hospital mortality occurred in 76 (28.8%) patients, 46 (24.3%) of whom admitted to medical wards. Furthermore, Hb levels at admittance were significantly lower in fatalities (g/dl 12.3; IQR 2.4 vs. 13.3; IQR 2.8; Mann-Whitney U-test; p = 0.001). After the exclusion of patients treated by LMWH intermediate or therapeutic doses (n = 32), the logistic regression showed that prophylaxis significantly and independently reduced mortality (OR 0.31, 95% CI 0.13-0.85). Present data show that COVID-19 patients who do not require ventilation benefit from prophylactic doses of LMWH.

Mortality and Transfusion Requirements in COVID-19 Hospitalized Italian Patients According to Severity of the Disease.

There is paucity of data on the transfusion need and its impact on the overall mortality in patients with COVID-19. We explored mortality in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 who required transfusions. Information on clinical variables and in-hospital mortality were obtained from medical records of 422 patients admitted to medical wards or the Intensive Care Unit (ICU). In-hospital mortality occurred in 147 (34.8%) patients, 94 (63.9%) of whom were admitted to the ICU. The median fatalities age was 77 years (IQR 14). Overall, 100 patients (60 males) received transfusion during hospitalization. The overall mortality was significantly and independently associated with age, ICU admission, Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD), and the number of transfused Red Blood Cell (RBC) units. Specifically, CKD was associated with mortality in patients admitted to medical wards, whereas the number of transfused RBC units predicted mortality in those admitted to the ICU. Transfusion strongly interacted with the admission to ICU (OR: 9.9; 95% CI: 2.5-40.0). In patients with COVID-19, age is one of the strongest risk factors in predicting mortality independently of the disease's severity. CKD confers a higher risk of mortality in patients admitted to medical wards. In those admitted to the ICU, the more RBC units are transfused, the more mortality increases.

SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia succesfully treated with cpap and cycles of tripod position: a case report.

BACKGROUND: Pneumonia induced by 2019 Coronavirus (COVID-19) is characterized by hypoxemic respiratory failure that may present with a broad spectrum of clinical phenotypes. At the beginning, patients may have normal lung compliance and be responsive to noninvasive ventilatory support, such as CPAP. However, the transition to more severe respiratory failure - Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS-CoV-2), necessitating invasive ventilation is often abrupt and characterized by a severe V/Q mismatch that require cycles of prone positioning. The aim of this case is to report the effect on gas exchange, respiratory mechanics and hemodynamics of tripod (or orthopneic sitting position) used as an alternative to prone position in a patient with mild SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia ventilated with helmet CPAP. CASE PRESENTATION: A 77-year-old awake and collaborating male patient with mild SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia and ventilated with Helmet CPAP, showed sudden worsening of gas exchange without dyspnea. After an unsuccessful attempt of prone positioning, we alternated three-hours cycles of semi-recumbent and tripod position, still keeping him in CPAP. Arterial blood gases (PaO2/FiO2, PaO2, SaO2, PaCO2 and A/a gradient), respiratory (VE, VT, RR) and hemodynamic parameters (HR, MAP) were collected in the supine and tripod position. Cycles of tripod position were continued for 3 days. The patient had a clinically important improvement in arterial blood gases and respiratory parameters, with stable hemodynamic and was successfully weaned and discharged to ward 10 days after pneumonia onset. CONCLUSIONS: Tripod position during Helmet CPAP can be applied safely in patients with mild SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia, with improvement of oxygenation and V/Q matching, thus reducing the need for intubation.

SARS-COV-2 Serological Profile in Healthcare Professionals of a Southern Italy Hospital.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is the first coronavirus that has caused a pandemic. Assessing the prevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 in healthcare worker groups offers a unique opportunity to study the correlation between seroconversion and immunization because of their occupational exposure and a higher risk of contagion. The study enrolled 3242 asymptomatic employees of "Policlinico Riuniti", Foggia. After the first screening, we collected sequential serum samples for up to 23 weeks from the same subjects. In order to perform a longitudinal follow-up study and get information about the titration of IgG levels, we analyzed data from subjects (33) with at least two consecutive serological IgG-positive tests; 62 (1.9%; 95% CI: 1.4-2.3) tested positive for at least one anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody. The seroprevalence was lower in the high-risk group 1.4% (6/428; 95% CI: 0.5-2.6) vs. the intermediate-risk group 2.0% (55/2736; 95% CI: 1.5-2.5). Overall, within eight weeks, we detected a mean reduction of -17% in IgG levels. Our data suggest a reduction of about 9.27 AU/mL every week (R2 = 0.35, p = 0.0003). This study revealed the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies among Foggia's hospital healthcare staff (1.9%). Moreover, the IgG level reduction suggests that the serological response fades fast in asymptomatic infections.

Multi-centre, three arm, randomized controlled trial on the use of methylprednisolone and unfractionated heparin in critically ill ventilated patients with pneumonia from SARS-CoV-2 infection: A structured summary of a study protocol for a randomised controlled trial.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the hypothesis that an adjunctive therapy with methylprednisolone and unfractionated heparin (UFH) or with methylprednisolone and low molecular weight heparin (LMWH) are more effective in reducing any-cause mortality in critically-ill ventilated patients with pneumonia from SARS-CoV-2 infection compared to LMWH alone. TRIAL DESIGN: The study is designed as a multi-centre, interventional, parallel group, superiority, randomized, investigator sponsored, three arms study. Patients, who satisfy all inclusion criteria and no exclusion criteria, will be randomly assigned to one of the three treatment groups in a ratio 1:1:1. PARTICIPANTS: Inpatients will be recruited from 8 Italian Academic and non-Academic Intensive Care Units INCLUSION CRITERIA (ALL REQUIRED): 1. Positive SARS-CoV-2 diagnostic (on pharyngeal swab of deep airways material) 2. Positive pressure ventilation (either non-invasive or invasive) from > 24 hours 3. Invasive mechanical ventilation from < 96 hours 4. PaO2/FiO2 ratio lower than 150 mmHg 5. D-dimer level > 6 times the upper limit of normal reference range 6. C-reactive Protein > 6-fold upper the limit of normal reference range EXCLUSION CRITERIA: 1. Age < 18 years 2. On-going treatment with anticoagulant drugs 3. Platelet count < 100.000/mm3 4. History of heparin-induced thrombocytopenia 5. Allergy to sodium enoxaparin or other LMWH, UFH or methylprednisolone 6. Active bleeding or on-going clinical condition deemed at high risk of bleeding contraindicating anticoagulant treatment 7. Recent (in the last 1 month prior to randomization) brain, spinal or ophthalmic surgery 8. Chronic assumption or oral corticosteroids 9. Pregnancy or breastfeeding or positive pregnancy test. In childbearing age women, before inclusion, a pregnancy test will be performed if not available 10. Clinical decision to withhold life-sustaining treatment or "too sick to benefit" 11. Presence of other severe diseases impairing life expectancy (e.g. patients are not expected to survive 28 days given their pre-existing medical condition) 12. Lack or withdrawal of informed consent INTERVENTION AND COMPARATOR: • LMWH group: patients in this group will be administered enoxaparin at standard prophylactic dosage. • LMWH + steroid group: patients in this group will receive enoxaparin at standard prophylactic dosage and methylprednisolone. • UFH + steroid group: patients in this group will receive UFH at therapeutic dosages and methylprednisolone. UFH will be administered intravenously in UFH + steroid group at therapeutic doses. The infusion will be started at an infusion rate of 18 UI/kg/hour and then modified to obtain aPTT Ratio in between the range of 1.5-2.0. aPTT will be periodically checked at intervals no longer than 12 hours. The treatment with UFH will be administered up to ICU discharge. After ICU discharge anticoagulant therapy may be interrupted or switched to prophylaxis with LMWH in the destination ward up to clinical judgement of the attending physician. Enoxaparin will be administered in both LMWH group and LMWH + steroid group at standard prophylactic dose (i.e., 4000 UI once day, increased to 6000 UI once day for patients weighting more than 90 kg). The treatment will be administered subcutaneously once a day up to ICU discharge. After ICU discharge it may be continued or interrupted in the destination ward up to clinical judgement of the attending physician. Methylprednisolone will be administered in both LMWH + steroid group and UHF + steroid group intravenously with an initial bolus of 0,5 mg/kg followed by administration of 0,5 mg/kg 4 times daily for 7 days, 0,5 mg/kg 3 times daily from day 8 to day 10, 0,5 mg/kg 2 times daily at days 11 and 12 and 0,5 mg/kg once daily at days 13 and 14. MAIN OUTCOMES: Primary Efficacy Endpoint: All-cause mortality at day 28 Secondary Efficacy Endpoints: - Ventilation free days (VFDs) at day 28, defined as the total number of days that patient is alive and free of ventilation (either invasive or non-invasive) between randomization and day 28 (censored at hospital discharge). - Need of rescue administration of high-dose steroids or immune-modulatory drugs; - Occurrence of switch from non-invasive to invasive mechanical ventilation during ICU stay; - Delay from start of non-invasive ventilation to switch to invasive ventilation; - All-cause mortality at ICU discharge and hospital discharge; - ICU free days (IFDs) at day 28, defined as the total number of days between ICU discharge and day 28. - Occurrence of new infections from randomization to day 28; including infections by Candida, Aspergillus, Adenovirus, Herpes Virus e Cytomegalovirus - Occurrence of new organ dysfunction and grade of dysfunction during ICU stay. - Objectively confirmed venous thromboembolism, stroke or myocardial infarction; Safety endpoints: - Occurrence of major bleeding, defined as transfusion of 2 or more units of packed red blood cells in a day, bleeding that occurs in at least one of the following critical sites [intracranial, intra-spinal, intraocular (within the corpus of the eye; thus, a conjunctival bleed is not an intraocular bleed), pericardial, intra-articular, intramuscular with compartment syndrome, or retroperitoneal], bleeding that necessitates surgical intervention and bleeding that is fatal (defined as a bleeding event that was the primary cause of death or contributed directly to death); - Occurrence of clinically relevant non-major bleeding, defined ad acute clinically overt bleeding that does not meet the criteria for major and consists of any bleeding compromising hemodynamic; spontaneous hematoma larger than 25 cm2, intramuscular hematoma documented by ultrasonography, haematuria that was macroscopic and was spontaneous or lasted for more than 24 hours after invasive procedures; haemoptysis, hematemesis or spontaneous rectal bleeding requiring endoscopy or other medical intervention or any other bleeding requiring temporary cessation of a study drug. RANDOMIZATION: A block randomisation will be used with variable block sizes (block size 4-6-8), stratified by 3 factors: Centre, BMI (<30/≥30) and Age (<75/≥75). Central randomisation will be performed using a secure, web-based, randomisation system with an allocation ratio of 1:1:1. The allocation sequence will be generated by the study statistician using computer generated random numbers. BLINDING (MASKING): Participants to the study will be blinded to group assignment. NUMBERS TO BE RANDOMISED (SAMPLE SIZE): The target sample size is based on the hypothesis that the combined use of UHF and steroid versus the LMWH group will significantly reduce the risk of death at day 28. The overall sample size in this study is expected to be 210 with a randomization 1:1:1 and seventy patients in each group. Assuming an alpha of 2.5% (two tailed) and mortality rate in LMWH group of 50%, as indicated from initial studies of ICU patients, the study will have an 80% power to detect at least a 25 % absolute reduction in the risk of death between: a) LMHW + steroid group and LMWH group or b) UHF + steroid group and LMWH group. The study has not been sized to assess the difference between LMHW + steroid group and UHF + steroid group, therefore the results obtained from this comparison will need to be interpreted with caution and will need further adequately sized studies confirm the effect. On the basis of a conservative estimation, that 8 participating sites admit an average of 3 eligible patients per month per centre (24 patients/month). Assuming that 80 % of eligible patients are enrolled, recruitment of 210 participants will be completed in approximately 10 months. TRIAL STATUS: Protocol version 1.1 of April 26th, 2020. Recruitment start (expected): September 1st, 2020 Recruitment finish (expected): June 30th, 2021 TRIAL REGISTRATION: EudraCT number 2020-001921-30 , registered on April 15th, 2020 AIFA approval on May 4th, 2020 FULL PROTOCOL: The full protocol is attached as an additional file, accessible from the Trials website (Additional file 1). In the interest in expediting dissemination of this material, the familiar formatting has been eliminated; this Letter serves as a summary of the key elements of the full protocol.